Invited Seminar at CES on 14 August 2018 at 11:00 am titled "Mathematics and Epidemics: Challenges and Opportunities in the Study of the Dynamics and Control of Influenza" by Carlos Castillo-Chavez from Arizona State University

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Mathematics and Epidemics: Challenges and Opportunities in the Study of the Dynamics and Control of Influenza
Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Arizona State University
Date & Time: 
14 Aug 2018 - 11:00am
Event Type: 
Invited Seminar
CES Seminar Hall, 3rd Floor, Biological Sciences Building
Before the talk

Although we can trace back the study of epidemics to the work of Daniel Bernoulli nearly two and a half centuries ago, the fact remains that key modeling advances followed the work of three individuals (two physicians) involved in the amelioration of the impact of disease at the population level a century or so ago: Sir Ronald Ross (1911) and Kermack and McKendrick (1927). Ross' interests were in the transmission dynamics and control of malaria while Kermack and McKendrick's work was directly tied in to the study of the dynamics of communicable diseases. In this presentation, I will deal primarily with the study of the dynamics of influenza type A, a communicable disease that does not present a “fixed” target. The study of the short-term dynamics of influenza, single epidemic outbreaks, makes use of extensions/modifications of the models first introduced by Kermack and McKendrick while the study of its long-term dynamics requires the introduction of modeling modifications that account for the continuous emergence of novel influenza variants: strains or subtypes. Here, I will briefly review recent work on the dynamics of influenza A/H1N1, making use of single outbreak models that account for the movement of people in the transmission process over various regions within Mexico. Next, I will discuss models that are tied in to the study of the long-term dynamics of influenza, models that account for outbreak-generated year-to-year shifts on the immunological profile of large populations, a process often referred to as cross-immunity. In particular, the role of cross immunity, population structure and interventions as drivers of sustained oscillations will be assessed. This research has been carried in collaboration with a large number of researchers over a couple of decades.

Speaker Bio: 
Carlos Castillo-Chavez is a Regents' Professor, a Joaquin Bustoz Jr. Professor of Mathematical Biology, and a Distinguished Sustainability Scientist at Arizona State University. He is also the rector of Yachay University of Experimental Technical Research in Ecuador. His research program is at the interface of the mathematical and natural and social sciences with emphasis on (i) the role of dynamic social landscapes on disease dispersal; (ii) the role of environmental and social structures on the dynamics of addiction and disease evolution, and (iii) Dynamics of complex systems at the interphase of ecology, epidemiology and the social sciences. Professor Castillo-Chavez has co-authored more than 200 publications and edited several volumes of research articles. He co-authored a textbook in Mathematical Biology (2001, second edition in 2012), and co-edited a volume on the use of mathematical models in homeland security, and various other works highlighting his interests in the applications of mathematics in emerging and re-emerging diseases . He is the founding director of the Simon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center and the graduate field in applied mathematics in the life and social sciences or AMLSS at ASU. In addition, he is the executive director and founder of the Mathematical and Theoretical Biology Institute or MTBI and The Institute for Strengthening the Understanding of Mathematics and Science or SUMS. MTBI was recognized as a “Mathematics Program that Makes a Difference” by the American Mathematical Society (2007) and 2011 Presidential Award for Excellence in Science, Mathematics, and Engineering Mentoring. SUMS’ efforts were recognized with a Presidential Mentorship Award in 2002. Among the significant honors he's received are two White House Awards: the Presidential Faculty Fellowship Award (1992) and a Presidential Award for Excellence in Science, Mathematics and Engineering Mentoring (1997). Professor Castillo-Chavez is a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM), the American College of Epidemiology and Founding Fellow of the American Mathematical Society. He received the AAAS Mentor award (2007). He also served as a member of the National Research Council’s Board of Higher Education and Workforce or BHEW (2009-2016) and on former President Obama’s Committee on the National Medal of Science (2010-2015). Professor Castillo-Chavez is also a member of the Santa Fe Institute's external faculty and an adjunct professor at Cornell University. Prior to ASU, he spent 18 years at Cornell University in the department of Biological Statistics and Computational Biology (1985-2003).
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