Structured Decision Modelling: Making Science-Based Conservation Decisions

It is becoming increasingly recognised that we need structured approaches to scientifically and transparently make conservation decisions. I will talk about Adaptive Resource Management, and Structured Decision Modelling, two linked approaches that simultaneously achieve a dual objective. First, it uses scientific information and understanding to direct conservation decisions, and second, it treats conservation decisions as natural 'experiments' to further our scientific understanding of species population dynamics. I will explain the process involved in implementing Adaptive Resource Management, in the particular context of waterfowl management. I will show how science was used to decide on hunting regulations, while simultaneously, monitoring of waterfowl allowed us to understand the impacts of hunting on waterfowl population dynamics. I will also talk to different forms of uncertainty in conservation decision-making and provide examples for each type of uncertainty. Using an illustrative example, I will then describe how Stochastic Decision Modelling uses science to direct conservation decisions. I will explain the utility function, and how it can be modified to consider future benefits, in addition to current benefits. I will cite an example of the use of Structured Decision Modelling to decide on tourism regulations in Denali National Park, such that impacts on the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos are minimal. I will conclude by detailing the utility of such a framework for conservation contexts of India.