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Time for a little fun and frolic

Millennia of photosynthesis has resulted in substantial accumulation of carbon in terrestrial vegetation. This carbon sequestration is an ongoing process and forests sequester a major fraction of anthropogenic carbon emissions. However, due to vulnerability of these forests to ongoing climate change, they may sequester less carbon or may even become a carbon source. Among all forest types, tropical forests demonstrate greatest carbon accumulation rate per unit area; however there are high uncertainties in the estimates of their carbon stocks and fluxes. Understanding the the response of these forests to future climate warrants a detailed investigation.

For this thesis, I am studying spatial and temporal variations in biomass and its drivers in the tropical forests of the Western Ghats of India. The first chapter of the thesis aims to address methodological issues that affect estimates of above-ground biomass obtained using global biomass models. Specifically, I examine height-diameter allometric relationships of trees and their environmental correlates. In the second chapter, I investigate a relatively new technique of biomass estimation using texture analysis of high resolution satellite imagery. I used this technique to generate a spatial biomass map for Mudumalai Tiger Reserve, Tamil Nadu. Here, the map will be validated with data from permanent forest plots and a comparison will be made with traditional reflectance-based biomass estimation techniques, such as using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). In the third chapter, I identify the key environmental factors driving variability of tree biomass for Mudumalai forest focusing on tree mortality and growth. In the fourth chapter, I attempt to apply all findings from previous chapters to project future biomass under different climate change scenarios

In this thesis progress presentation, I will present the progress made towards achieving each of my thesis objectives. I hope to receive feedback and suggestions to improve this study further.

Cooperation is ubiquitous across taxa in the animal kingdom. For
example,
microbes cooperate in producing antibiotic-resistant biofilms, mammals and
birds collectively mob predators, and humans cooperate in utilization of
common resources. However, cooperation is a paradox: why does natural
selection favour a costly behaviour? One of the key mechanisms of
cooperation is a spatial structure with local clustering of cooperators
(and defectors). This exposes defectors to the consequences of their own
selfish behaviour, keeping them in check. However, a vast fraction of
cooperative species is mobile. Movement allows defectors to escape their
fate, destroying spatial structure and hindering cooperation. Therefore,
cooperation is typically thought to be difficult to evolve in mobile
organisms. In this thesis, we question this assumption, and using
simulation and analytical studies, show that coevolutionary mechanisms can
promote cooperation in mobile populations.

Species across taxa, ranging from cells and microbes to fish, birds and
ungulates, live in highly mobile groups that frequently merge and split,
called fission fusion groups. The dynamics of these groups is governed by
local cohesive interactions between individuals. In the first chapter,
using explicit spatial agent-based evolutionary simulations, we explore
the coevolution of cooperation and local cohesive tendencies as a possible
route to cooperation. We show that, mobility facilitates spatial
structuring of cooperators via a dynamically evolving difference in the
cohesive tendencies of cooperators and defectors. We use the ideas of
assortment (where cooperators interact more frequently with other
cooperators) and multilevel selection (where selection for cooperation
between groups outweighs selection against them within groups) to
understand the coevolutionary dynamics. We discover an interplay among
cooperation and grouping, where self-assorted groups favour cooperation,
and cooperative interactions in turn favour such groups. Our results
reveal the possibility of cooperation in fission-fusion populations that
are typically thought to inhibit cooperation.

In the second and third chapters, we generalize our coevolutionary model
by considering a generic coevolving phenotypic trait (or ‘tag’) that
mediates interactions. Evolution happens via two key processes: selection
and drift. Unlike typical models of evolution that often employ only one
of these, we develop an analytical model that combines both. Our model
employs techniques from statistical physics to derive coupled
Fokker-Planck and Langevin equations for a finite population of organisms.
Our main finding is that mutations and demographic noise can facilitate
the evolution of tag-based cooperation. Our results could provide insights
into cooperation among metastatic cancer cells, quorum sensing bacteria,
and early multicellular clusters.

In the final chapter, we study the coevolution of cooperation and mobility
itself, in the context of human cooperation. Humans cooperate in the
utilization of spatial ecological public goods, such as forest produce,
fisheries, and grazing lands. However, humans evolve their strategies via
social learning, by imitating more successful individuals. Here, apart
from mobility, space introduces other features like incomplete information
and eco-evolutionary feedbacks. We incorporate these features into a
minimal, agent-based, evolutionary model to study human harvesting and
dispersal strategies. We show that, as resource utility increases and
dispersal becomes cheaper, societies progress from a sedentary,
subsistence-oriented lifestyle, through a nomadic phase characterized by
efficient and equitable resource harvest, to eventual social
stratification and overexploitation of the resource. Our model can
qualitatively reproduce harvesting and dispersal patterns observed across
the world throughout human history, such as in equestrian cultures and
shifting cultivation. It also helps us develop policy insights on the
sustainability of global commons, such as timber and fisheries.

In conclusion, we investigated coevolutionary dynamics across a spectrum
of mobility (from highly mobile to almost sedentary populations), and
found that coevolutionary mechanisms can facilitate cooperation in mobile
organisms. In the process, we also obtained insights into the role of
other factors, such as demographic stochasticity, rapid evolution,
incomplete information and eco-evolutionary feedbacks, on spatial
evolutionary dynamics.

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Predicting species distribution in space and time is one of the most interesting questions in ecology. The most important factors affecting species distribution in a habitat are environmental factors such as climate, resource distribution, etc. and dispersal factors such as barriers. Recent studies highlight the importance of functional traits along with environmental factors in influencing the species distributions in a landscape. An understanding of local processes acting within a habitat patch and properties of the landscape, which includes the connectivity between patches and matrix properties, may still not be sufficient to explain population density and distribution patterns, because the response of species to these ecological conditions may depend on species-specific or even population-specific traits, such as body size, behaviour and other functional traits. In this chapter I try to look at the distribution patterns of a butterfly community in a naturally fragmented forest-grassland landscape. I am planning to access species responses to local and landscape features along with the functional traits of the species as a way of understanding species distribution patterns. I propose to use this understanding to test relationships between landscape composition, and population density patterns of butterfly species and predict their relative vulnerability to habitat change.

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